Does Hillary stand a chance in 08?

[doom1701]

Heck, will she even actually run? Even ignoring the poll numbers that the (usually anti-poll) conservative talking heads have been throwing around lately, my gut feeling is that the only people taking a serious look at Hillary for President are, well, those same conservative talking heads. I haven't met anyone who is actually interested in voting for her for President. I'm starting to feel like "Hillary for President" is just a talking point imagined by the conservative talking heads to try to avoid talking about things like rampant fiscal irresponsibility and the growth of big government.

What's the concensus outside of my generally conservative circles?

[pdjplano]

Yes, she stands a very good chance, she has the money and ability to raise it, the contacts, the background, and the ability. I know many Democrats who would love to vote for Hillary...

[JustAllie]

I agree that she has the moneyraising ability, contacts, background, and ability, but I am not sure she's electable at the national level.

But what do I know. My record at predicting elections is poor.

[pgogborn]

I am not very good at translating jokes that I have heard into text but one of my favorite insightful political jokes goes something like this.

While Bill was President he and Hillary travelled to the town where Hillary grew up.

On the edge of the town was a run down one man garage where a scruffy man Hillary's age was operating the rusting petrol pump.

Bill turned to Hillary and snorted "Think where you would be if you had married him". Hillary replied "I would be married to the President of the United States".

My point being is I think people tend to under estimate Hillary - which is something that could work to her advantage.

In some elections I think a big factor is a reaction against what went before, a desire for a change, if 2008 is one of those elections I think Hillary is in with a very good chance.

[JPriller]

She's certainly a good bogeyman (er, bogeyperson) for the right, so it's no surprise she's often ranted and raved over by them.

On the left, she's a woman, a Clinton (trust me, almost all of us do not think that a bad thing) and she's got loads of dough to run with.

She also drives the right mondo apesh** bugf***, which is cool all in itself.

But she's got no chance of beating the GOP candidate in 2008, unless they try to run another Bush (other than the first one, who as a one-termer can try again. I'd vote for him.)

[jgickler]

I think that Hillary has a very strong chance of getting the Democratic nomination. She has the political organization, the contacts, and most importantly she will have the money.

However, I think that in the general election, she will not do nearly as well. She will try to play the moderate, but unlike Bill, she is much farther to the left then the average voter. I also think that she has a significant amount of anti-Hillary voters, which will help a GOP candidate as long as they can distance themselves from Iraq. Rudy and Romney come to mind as good candidates against Hillary.

But of all the dem contenders that have announced so far, they are all lightweights. Obama has no experience, neither does Edwards. I doubt Vilsac will even carry Iowa in the caucuses. The Dems won't give Gore or Kerry another chance to be defeated. So Hillary becomes one of the only viable candidates.

[pdjplano]

i think people vastly overestimate her negatives in a general election, especially if the Republicans put up someone like McCain..

[Otto]

Nope. Not a chance. No way.

Nothing against Hillary, but she's not the first woman president. She just doesn't have it. If she even gets the nomination, I'd be utterly shocked.

[bigpuma]

The liberals I talk to won't vote for Hillary because she supported the war in Iraq. The conservatives seem to hate her with a passion so she has negatives on both sides. Not to mention her gender. I don't see how she could win, I doubt she would get the nomination.

[mercurial]

Wait, we're not talking about Duff in 08?

[Otto]

:undecided:

http://www.starstore.com/acatalog/duff_beer_cards_2.jpg

??

[JYoung]

i think people vastly overestimate her negatives in a general election, especially if the Republicans put up someone like McCain..

I think that the Far Right's dislike of Hillary will outweigh any animosity they have for McCain.

[pdjplano]

I think that the Far Right's dislike of Hillary will outweigh any animosity they have for McCain.

the far right isn't voting D ever, the issue is to whom the moderates / non-party people flock. Hillary > McCain in that matchup IMO.

[JYoung]

the far right isn't voting D ever, the issue is to whom the moderates / non-party people flock. Hillary > McCain in that matchup IMO.

I'm not sure of that.
I think that McCain is more widely considered a Moderate while Hillary is very definitely considered a Liberal no matter how hard she protests.
And if she brings up Healthcare while campaigning, she's finished. ;)

[markz]

...I know many Democrats who would love to vote for Hillary...

just to see Bill as the First Gentleman! What a hoot that would be!

[Makita]

should she get the nomination, I wouldn't vote for her. The republicans would need to barf up a real Diamond for me to vote Republican this time around, so, should Hillary get the nod, giess I be voting for Nader, or some other Kook.

[dirk1843]

I take the road that Hillary will carry the Dems primary, but may have a hard time in the election. Depends on who runs against her. Rudy will have a hard time in the GOP primary, but could carry the national election easily.

SO.........my prediction, barring something really crazy happening.........Hillary and Rudy in 08. What I would like to know is who will be on the ticket with them?? This could be one of the few times in our recent history where the Vice is almost as big a story as the Pres......think 1984.

[Mikkel_Knight]

Hillary doesn't stand a chance unless (like Priller said) the Republicans give the country another Bush.

Hillary has demonstrated in the past that she's a maverick, hasn't demonstrated much in the way of warmness and certainly not very much kindness.

I think the country would rather have another "gunslinger" than someone who can easily be portrayed as a cold, calculating, emotionless, ice-queen. She has no personality and that's her downfall. Hell - even Kerry had a personality. Gore didn't, but Kerry did.

All I know is I hope and pray that the Dems can offer something better in the form of a candidate instead of Hillary...

[sonnik]

The furthest you'll get on this is that people will comment "She has the potential for a nomination." Yet when you ask if they would support Hillary Clinton as their candidate of choice, the answer is lukewarm at best.

Now, something that I can't stress enough, are we stupid enough as a collective to (I'll bold this for emphasis) believe that our leaders can only come from two surnames?

I mean seriously: There are over 300,000,000 people in this country - and we even allow the posibility that the best potential leaders go to either one of two different Thanksgiving dinners?

Professional Wrestling has storylines more believable than this.

Are people just hoping to set up a clever answer to a trivia question about presidential history 100 years from now? I surely don't want to be remembered as part of the generation that thought a sequential Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton series of administrations was a good idea.

Name recognition and the presidency haven't done us well as of late. Stop hoping for another Roosevelt.

[Ryan]

Yes, she stands a chance. Some women (and men) will vote for her just because she's a woman and they want a woman President to prove a point.

But I don't think she's going to run.

Sadly I think we're in for four more years of Republicans in the whitehouse.

I think I'll give my vote to the Marijuana reform candidate.

[Ryan]

Now, something that I can't stress enough, are we stupid enough as a collective to (I'll bold this for emphasis) believe that our leaders can only come from two surnames?

I mean seriously: There are over 300,000,000 people in this country - and we even allow the posibility that the best potential leaders go to either one of two different Thanksgiving dinners?



Let's allow naturalized citizens to run. I'm sure Ahnuld would love to be elected President. Even though he's a Republican I'll vote for him.

After all, the only natural born citizens stepping up to the plate seem to be a bunch of losers, or people from the *ahem* "Royal families."

[Lori]

I'm with Allie. She's not electable. She polarizes the nation like few others.

Personally, I hope that she doesn't run at all. I'm not sure who the magic ticket is, but the dems need to figure it out and throw all their support in a unified direction.

Personally, I'm hoping for Edwards/Obama. :)

[smak]

I don't like her chances.

If you say the voters are liberal dems, moderate dems, moderate Repubs, and conservatie Repubs, only the moderate dems like her.

McCain might be liked by more of those people, but that's only because they have been given the phony mainstream press version of McCain, and not the real McCain.

I still think in my gut that Al Gore would win easily, but that's just my feeling that when 1/2 the people see that name on the ballot, they'll think to themselves "Man, did I screw that vote up in 2000"

-smak-

[JohnJr]

I've yet to run into a woman, that doesn't like Hilary.

-John

[Lori]

You haven't met my mother. :)

[dirk1843]

I work (used to live) in a small (less than 7000) town in Arkansas. It is mostly white, low to mid class and heavily democratic. I have heard from many men in their 50's and up state quite clearly they can't wait to vote for Hillary. IMHO this group would have been the most unlikely to vote for a woman president.

[markz]

You haven't met my mother. :)

Or my mother. My mother doesn't like her because she is such a strong woman. does that mean my Mom therefore dislikes my wife and my brother's wife?

[JYoung]

I work (used to live) in a small (less than 7000) town in Arkansas. It is mostly white, low to mid class and heavily democratic. I have heard from many men in their 50's and up state quite clearly they can't wait to vote for Hillary. IMHO this group would have been the most unlikely to vote for a woman president.

I would think that would have to do with the fact that she lived in Arkansas while Bill was Governor and might be considered one of their own.
Depending on how long ago this was, I wonder if their opinions have changed due to Hillary's carpetbagging to New York?

Or my mother. My mother doesn't like her because she is such a strong woman. does that mean my Mom therefore dislikes my wife and my brother's wife?

I have heard a few women say they don't like Hillary due to the fact that she stayed with Bill through all his cheating.
They use this to conclude that she's primarily intrested in power.

[Pablo]

I've yet to run into a woman, that doesn't like Hilary.

-John
You need to get out more. Extrapolating from many polls that I have seen, many women (and men) do not know who she is.

[dirk1843]

I would think that would have to do with the fact that she lived in Arkansas while Bill was Governor and might be considered one of their own.
Depending on how long ago this was, I wonder if their opinions have changed due to Hillary's carpetbagging to New York?



I have heard a few women say they don't like Hillary due to the fact that she stayed with Bill through all his cheating.
They use this to conclude that she's primarily intrested in power.

Most of us couldn't stand Bill as Govenor, but somehow he was loved as President.

At least the the people I hear talk, going to New York isn't an issue. I think she is a real contender in 2008.

[JYoung]

Looks as if we'll see if she's really viable or not.

Hillary Clinton announces intention to seek nomination (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16720167/).
"“I’m in, and I’m in to win,” she said."

[RegBarc]

Looks as if we'll see if she's really viable or not.

Hillary Clinton announces intention to seek nomination (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16720167/).
"“I’m in, and I’m in to win,” she said."
She has a better chance of picking up the nomination for President than Obama does. But I still don't think she'll be able to pick up the nod. She's too polarizing outside of New England.

[Ryan]

She has a better chance of picking up the nomination for President than Obama does. But I still don't think she'll be able to pick up the nod. She's too polarizing outside of New England.


As much as I hate to say it, I hope she doesn't win.

[smak]

As of right now, whoever makes it out of the Dem field is going to be a huge favorite.

The McCain surge is killling McCain. Rudy would do well 30 years ago, but I don't know how he's going to make it out of the Republican field these days, nobody likes Gingrich, and the rest are basically unknowns.

I actually think she has a chance if she can define her self better, but she's not a good speaker, and that will hurt her.

-smak-

[aleajactaest]

Nope. Not a chance. No way.

Nothing against Hillary, but she's not the first woman president. She just doesn't have it. If she even gets the nomination, I'd be utterly shocked.

I'd agree in general.

She has the money, she has the organization, but her negatives are huge.

1. The whole dragon lady persona
2. The general perception that she is a bit too ambitious.
3. Even if she could overcome the other two, she lacks the ability to connect with people and in the end, her inability to hide the fact that she thinks she smarter than the people she's talking to will come through.

People can tolerate almost anything but that holier/smarter than thou attitude. A complete turn off in traditional democratic circles. Her choice of NY as the state she ran from was no accident. It's one of the few places that would tolerate her attitude since NY'rs have the same I'm better than you opinion of themselves and they have a history of allowing carpet baggers (e.g. RFK).

[Marco]

As a Democrat, I see Hillary '08 having roughly the same impact on the national electorate as Goldwater '64.

Whereas Goldwater *scared* people into voting for Johnson, too many people just plain don't like Hillary C.

[Mysteryman]

I really hate to say it, but if the Dems put up Hillary, I might vote for her. I've seen what Republican leaders call a presidential candidate in the last two elections and can't take the chance they'll do that again.

I really don't want to vote for Hillary, though.