Hastert's seat goes to the Democrats

[keirgrey]

The Illinois congressional seat that was previously held by Dennis Hastert -- the longest-serving Republican speaker in the history of the House -- was won by a Democrat yesterday.

Interesting development. Rest of the story can be seen here: http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics...ts-seat-g.html

Is this a sign of what's coming in November for the Republicans?

[JP]

Yup, and in an Illinois district that's dependably GOP and George had no trouble carrying in 2000 and 2004, and after the NRCC and the GOP candidate pumped a bunch of money into it.

The victor gets to enjoy the seat until November, when the same two guys will contest for it again.

TPM has the official NRCC reaction:

“The one thing 2008 has shown is that one election in one state does not prove a trend. In fact, there has been no national trend this entire election season. The presidential election is evidence of that. The Democratic candidates are trading election victories from week to week and the nomination could hinge on a few news cycles. The one message coming out of 2008 so far is that what happens today is not a bellwether of what happens this fall.”

You heard that right, because the Dems have a tight race going for their nominee and are seeing record-breaking turnouts across the nation, that PROVES it's absolutely NOT a sign the GOP should be worried over losing a previously dependable district.

[Turtleboy]

My current prediction for the fall:

HUGE Dem pickups in the House, Moderate pickups in the Senate (maybe 54-55 votes, not 60 votes), and President McCain.

Obama will win the nomination, but only after a divisive convention, in which Hillary gives McCain the campaign by portrarying him as uppity (sic) and inexperienced, and running out of turn.

[fake]

Divided government is best government. Dems will control congress and Republicans will control the executive branch.

[TheIndependent]

My current prediction is Ds pick up seats everywhere, and the Presidency. We have a 4.5 Trillion$ budget by 2012 but reduce the deficit per year to 200Bil$ and Democrats will proclaim themselves the "true fiscal conservatives"

[JP]

Originally Posted by Turtleboy

My current prediction for the fall:

HUGE Dem pickups in the House, Moderate pickups in the Senate (maybe 54-55 votes, not 60 votes), and President McCain.

Your third prediction sorta cancels out your first and second, doesn't it? Getting big gains in the House and any in the Senate depends on Dem voter enthusiasm and a Dem candidate with long coattails. If McCain wins it, the Dems may knock off a blue-state GOPer or two but they aren't getting big gains.

Originally Posted by Turtleboy

Obama will win the nomination, but only after a divisive convention, in which Hillary gives McCain the campaign by portrarying him as uppity (sic) and inexperienced, and running out of turn.

There does seem to be a lot of chattering that that's what she's up to. She has to try to damage Obama enough so the SDs will throw the nomination her way, but if that fails (and it almost certainly will) then the backup plan is that Obama's so damaged McCain wins and she tries again in 2012.

The problem with that is that huge swaths of the party will blame her for taking down Obama, and she and Joe Lieberman will be competing for title of most despised Dem.

[Turtleboy]

Originally Posted by JPriller

Your third prediction sorta cancels out your first and second, doesn't it? Getting big gains in the House and any in the Senate depends on Dem voter enthusiasm and a Dem candidate with long coattails. If McCain wins it, the Dems may knock off a blue-state GOPer or two but they aren't getting big gains.
.

No, I think people like divided government. They are unhappy with the Bush administration, and there are a lot of Republican retirements, so that would account for the Dem pickups.

But like usual, with the Presidential election, the Dems will find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

[pseudonym]

Originally Posted by Turtleboy

Obama will win the nomination, but only after a divisive convention, in which Hillary gives McCain the campaign by portrarying him as uppity (sic) and inexperienced, and running out of turn.

If she actually uses the word "uppity" about Obama, the convention will unite against her pretty quickly.

[keirgrey]

Oh yeah, LOTS of connotations in that particular word.

[TheIndependent]

will the Jewish and older women Ds vote for a black person?

[Turtleboy]

Originally Posted by pdjplano

will the Jewish and older women Ds vote for a black person?

Not in Floirda.

I voted for Obama, but the Century Village vote certainly went to Hillary.

Now in the General Election, I'm not sure.

If the Republicans can convince the old Jews that Obama is a Muslim who will be anti-Israel, then they may vote for McCain.

But my 95 year old Grandfather only voted for one Republican his entire life, and that was Eisenhower. I think he would vote Democrat no matter what.

The women on the other hand, I'm not sure.

[jami]

Originally Posted by keirgrey

Interesting development. Rest of the story can be seen here: http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics...ts-seat-g.html

Is this a sign of what's coming in November for the Republicans?

We're in the district that elected Foster. I'm pretty amazed that he was elected. Happy, but still amazed. This district is traditionally VERY red.

[JP]

Originally Posted by jami

We're in the district that elected Foster. I'm pretty amazed that he was elected. Happy, but still amazed. This district is traditionally VERY red.

I heard this was even after the GOP trotted out the tired old "he's a Dem that doesn't want us listening to terrorists!" malarky against Foster, too. A hopeful sign that the country is waking up to the constant fearmongering, when that crap can't even help them keep a red district.

[aindik]

Originally Posted by Turtleboy

If the Republicans can convince the old Jews that Obama is a Muslim who will be anti-Israel, then they may vote for McCain.

Just because he's not a Muslim doesn't necessarily mean he isn't anti-Israel. That one might actually be true.

Or, at least, pro-Palestinian to an extent that no recent administration has been.

[smak]

I'd have to look at the senate races individually, but as for the house, there will be massive pickups. Probably more than 2006. 29 Republican incumbents have bailed and aren't seeking re-election. They see the writing on the wall.

-smak-

[JP]

Originally Posted by smak

29 Republican incumbents have bailed and aren't seeking re-election. They see the writing on the wall.

I think at least some of those are quitting before a new ethics law provision kicks in, the one where you've gotta be out of office 2 years before you can cash in on your connections by becoming a lobbyist.

[grondramb]

Originally Posted by aindik

Just because he's not a Muslim doesn't necessarily mean he isn't anti-Israel. That one might actually be true.

Or, at least, pro-Palestinian to an extent that no recent administration has been.

It doesn't even have to be bad intent - it could just be undervaluing the our only true democratic friend in the middle east coupled with a desire to flee Iraq after we brought the war there.

[timesamillion]

Originally Posted by JPriller

I heard this was even after the GOP trotted out the tired old "he's a Dem that doesn't want us listening to terrorists!" malarky against Foster, too. A hopeful sign that the country is waking up to the constant fearmongering, when that crap can't even help them keep a red district.

there was also an add that had (out of context) video of him saying "there's nothing in life you can't improve by throwing money at it". Of course, the comment was referring to the FAA's pathetic efforts to improve air traffic safety and was something like "The FAA thinks there's nothing in life you can't improve by throwing money at it". Oberweis's response to this at a debate ? "I find myself in the almost embarrassing position of tending to agree with Bill on some of his comments there."

Oberweis is 0-5, soon to be 0-6. He just needs to go away.